![]() The ‘Andalusian ghost’, referring to the confidence-and-supply agreement the PP/Ciudadanos coalition and Vox signed in Andalusia, was frequently brought up by both left-wing parties throughout the campaign, with PSOE declaring a choice between progress and a return to a dark past, and Podemos labelling it a ‘constitutive election’, which would define the country for decades to come. This high turnout, which has traditionally been thought to benefit the Left, can be explained by reference to the voto del miedo (the ‘fear-based’ vote). How can last night’s results be explained? A key figure is the turnout, which, at 75.7%, was 9.5 points higher than in the previous election. They will enter the Spanish parliament for the first time in history, but will do so as yet another opposition party, unlikely to gain representation within the chamber’s governing body. Despite obtaining 10% of the vote and 24 MPs, increasing their share of the vote by two million votes, their expectations were significantly higher, with the exit poll predicting around 40 MPs and the national executive hoping to become the kingmaker for the Popular Party. On the far right of the chamber, the newly elected Vox, the popularity of which has been largely fed by the Catalan crisis, had a bittersweet night. ![]() The Popular Party are, undoubtedly, Sunday’s biggest loser, returning an all-time low of 66 MPs and 4 million votes, and having lost 120 MPs and 6 million votes since 2011. Podemos, while obtaining, at 42, fewer MPs than in the previous elections, have mitigated their losses, and will seek to form a coalition with Sánchez. Ciudadanos, which has significantly shifted to the right in the past year, obtained 57 MPs, making considerable gains which will trigger a fierce fight with PP to declare themselves the moral leaders of the opposition. PSOE is the clear winner of the night, with 123 MPs, up 38 from 2016, defying a ‘Pasokisation’ which many had declared irreversible. Last night’s election yields a stunning (and complex) composition in the Parliament. On the other, the surge of Vox, the party advised by Steve Bannon and which was building on the momentum it had gained after obtaining its first-ever regional representatives in the Andalusian election in December. On the one hand, the possibility of a hung parliament, with the risk of an ‘Italianised’ Spain in which forming a stable government would become borderline impossible. Throughout the campaign, both the national and the international press warned of two risks. ![]() ![]() The campaign was, from a very early stage, pitched as a fight between two blocks: the centre-left PSOE and left-wing Podemos against ALDE member Ciudadanos (Citizens), the Popular Party (PP) and the far-right Vox. ![]()
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